A major upgrade of the Global Strain Rate Map, version 2.1, uses far more geodetic data, systematic data processing, more modeled plates and plate boundaries, an improved algorithm, and a finer spatial grid than version 1 (Kreemer et al., 2014). We convert this model to an indefinite-term tectonic forecast of shallow seismicity on a fine global grid, using the assumptions of Bird et al. (2010) ...

The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be predictable. Among proposed anomalous properties are the larger proportion than normal of large versus small foreshocks, the power law acceleration of seismicity rate a...

Through a detailed analysis of seismicity at the base of the transition zone, we obtain an updated value of the maximum reliable depth of confirmed seismicity, we investigate regional variation in the maximum depth of seismicity among those Wadati-Benioff zones which reach the bottom of the transition zone, and we attempt to quantify the maximum possible rate of seismic release in the lower man...

As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasts, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, well-known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model). The ETAS model is constructed on a (bare) Omori’s law, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks....

Widespread seismicity was triggered by the June 28, 1992, Landers California, earthquake at a rate which was maximum immediately after passage of the exciting seismic waves. Rectified diffusion of vapor from hydrothermal liquids and magma into bubbles oscillating in an earthquake can increase the local pore pressure to seismically significant levels within the duration of the earthquake. In a h...

A model of the spatial and temporal distribution of seismicity both before and after the Northridge, California earthquake has been used to estimate the background stress state, loading rate, and some parameters relating to fault friction. A detailed source model was used to calculate the stress change eld from the Northridge mainshock, which 1 was t to the spatial distribution of seismicity. A...

Predictions of earthquakes that are based on observations of precursory seismicity cannot depend on the average properties of the seismicity, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. Instead it must depend on the fluctuations in seismicity. We summarize the observational data of the fluctuations of seismicity in space, in time, and in a coupled space-time regime over the past 60 yr in ...