We investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50,000 employees at seven corporations. Controlling for economic factors, psychological factors inuence exercise. Consistent with psychological models of beliefs, employees exercise in response to stock price trends—exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer hori...

The downside risk CAPM (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns. Correctly accounting for this variation is crucial for the empirical performance of the model. The DR-CA...

It is a common wisdom that individual stocks’ returns are difficult to predict, though in many situations it is important to have such estimates at our disposal. In particular, they are needed to determine the cost of capital. Market equilibrium models posit that expected returns are proportional to the sensitivities to systematic risk factors. Fama and French (1993) three-factor model explains...

This paper employs the state-space model to reexamine the fundamental issue in finance about whether it is the expected returns or the expected dividends growth that is primarily responsible for the stock price variations. We use Bayesian methods to conduct inference and show that there is a substantial uncertainty about the contributions of expected returns and expected dividends to the fluctu...

We present strong evidence that high differences of opinion stocks earn lower returns around earnings announcements. The evidence is similar across six different proxies for differences of opinion (earnings volatility, return volatility, dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts, number of analysts, firm age, and share turnover). The three-day hedge returns (returns on low minus high differenc...

Production timing is an essential element in fresh vegetable growers’ efforts to maximize profitability and reduce income risks. The present study uses biophysical simulation modeling coupled with a dual crop (tomatoes, sweet corn) whole-farm economic formulation to analyze the effects of growers’ risk aversion levels and price consideration (seasonal or annual price consideration) in expected ...

There is a large and growing literature documenting the relation between ex ante observable variables and stock returns. Importantly, much of the evidence on the relation between returns and observable variables like market capitalization, the ratio of price/book, and prior price change has been portrayed in the context of returns to simulated portfolio strategies. Often missing in these analys...

Abstract While relevant stylized facts are observed for Bitcoin markets, we find a distinct property the scaling behavior of cumulative return distribution. For various assets, tail index μ distribution exhibits ≈ 3, which is referred to as ”the inverse cubic law.” On other hand, that claimed be 2, known square We investigate properties using recent data and changes consistent with law. This su...