Sparse and short news headlines can be arbitrary, noisy, ambiguous, making it difficult for classic topic model LDA (latent Dirichlet allocation) designed accommodating long text to discover knowledge from them. Nonetheless, some of the existing research about text-based crude oil forecasting employs explore topics headlines, resulting in a mismatch between further affecting performance. Exploi...

Research on crude oil price forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from scholars and policymakers due to its significant effect the global economy. Besides supply demand, prices are largely influenced by various factors, such as economic development, financial markets, conflicts, wars, political events. Most previous research treats a time series or econometric variable prediction probl...

Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler’s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, d...

This paper develops an efficiency-wage model where input prices affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment. We show that a simple framework based on only two prices (the real price of oil and the real rate of interest) is able to explain the main post-war movements in the rate of U.S. joblessness. The equations do well in forecasting unemployment many years out-of-sample, and provide evidence ...

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oil price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence ...

Social-economic variables influence transportation demand largely. Analyses of discrete choice model consider social-economic variables to study traveler’s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. Also, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil avi...

In the long-term, crude oil prices may impact the economic stability and sustainability of many countries, especially those depending on oil imports. This study thus suggests an alternative model for accurately forecasting oil prices while reflecting structural changes in the oil market by using a Bayesian approach. The prior information is derived from the recent and expected structure of the ...

In this study, we propose a knowledge-based forecasting system — rough-set-refined text mining (RSTM) approach — for crude oil price tendency forecasting. This system consists of two modules. In the first module, text mining techniques are used to construct a metadata repository and generate rough knowledge by extracting unstructured text documents, including gathering various related text docu...