This paper developes a small open economy model in which domestic resource shocks play a vital role in driving the dynamics of the major macroeconomic aggregates. Households rent capital and labour to rms and have access to an international bond market. The model is calibrated to recent Icelandic data and simulated under two alternative exchange rate regimes: oating rates, and monetary union me...

External Monetary Shocks and Monetary Integration: Evidence from the Bulgarian Currency Board Starting July the 1st 1997, Bulgaria adopted a Currency Board (CB) monetary system. This paper aims at investigating if the adoption of the CB monetary system, which involves the cost of loosing monetary autonomy, has provided a relatively better (with respect to other CEEC) monetary integration of Bul...

This study aims to evaluate the effect of sentiments on Iran's economy through a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in a closed economy. In this study, the coefficients of the proposed model are calibrated and estimated using the quarterly data of Iran's economy from 2004 to 2015. It shows that in the presence of sentiment, how stochastic impulses affect the main macroec...

This paper examines how the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables has evolved for the United Kingdom over the post-WWII period until 2007. We model time-variation through a Markov switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants of the sign restriction identification scheme to back out the time-varying effect of different struc...

There is controversy about whether a monetary union is feasible in the East Asian region. Amongst the criteria for establishing a monetary union, most of the existing studies focus on the symmetric issue of fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes the firstdifferenced variables in...

everal authors have documented a reduced variability of output and inflation in the United States since the beginning of the 1980s.1 In fact, a comparison of the 1980:1-2001:2 period with the two preceding decades shows that the standard deviation of quarterly output growth has fallen 30 percent, while the standard deviation of inflation has decreased more than 40 percent. These changes in the ...

A large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector autoregression where the volatility of structural shocks is allowed to be time-varying and to have a direct impact...

Fiscal policy restrictions are often criticized for limiting the ability of governments to react to business cycle fluctuations. Therefore, the adoption of quantitative restrictions is viewed as inevitably leading to increased macroeconomic volatility. In this paper we use data from 48 U.S. states to investigate how budget rules affect fiscal policy outcomes. Our key findings are that (1) stric...