We study the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a Ramsey-Sidrauski model augmented with environmental capital. Equilibrium solutions are studied through “Green Golden Rule”. Despite non-separability of money utility intertemporally non-separable preferences, is environmentally neutral. Policy impacts environment via marginal rate transformation rather than substitution consumpt...

We propose a statistical model to assess whether individuals strategically use mixed strategies in repeated games. We formulate a hidden Markov model in which the latent state space contains both pure and mixed strategies, and allows switching between these states. We apply the model to data from an experiment in which human subjects repeatedly play a normal form game against a computer that al...

In this paper, I find that real U.S. GDP is better characterized as a trend stationary Markov-switching process than as having a (regime-dependent) unit root. I examine the effects of both assumptions on the analysis of business cycle features and their implications for the persistence of the dynamic response of output to a random disturbance. JEL Classification: E32, C22, E27.

this paper examines the impact of 2005 presidential election of iran on the tehran stock exchange volatility as a political shock. it uses garch family (fiegarch, egarch, and garch) and markov regime switching (mrs) models as the analytical frameworks for the main the stock daily prices index. our findings confirm statistical validity of arima – fiegarch-x and ar(1) mrs as appropriate specifica...

Differential tax analysis is used to show how the optimal mix of inflation tax and direct taxation changes with the relative size of the hidden economy. The larger the relative size of the hidden economy, the smaller the optimal ratio of direct tax to inflation tax. Anecdotal empirical evidence supports this result. JEL Classification: E62, H21, H26, O17.

We propose to use the attractiveness of pooling relatively short time series that display similar dynamics, but without restricting to pooling all into one group. We suggest to estimate the appropriate grouping of time series simultaneously along with the group-specific model parameters. We cast estimation into the Bayesian framework and use Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods. We discu...

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the m...

Within the non-stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model framework this paper examines the implications of alternative fiscal consolidation programs for small open economy. The calibrated model enables realistically quantify the impact of the deficit financing and fiscal consolidation on consumption and saving of households, investment of firms and thereby on the capital stock and real inter...

Fiscal Union Consensus Design under the Risk of Autarky* Inspired by the current debate over the future of the monetary union in Europe, this paper provides a simple model for the determination of the conditions of survival of the common good, which requires the creation of an effective fiscal union. We highlight the importance of institutional design and varying decision weights for the enlarg...

We propose a new Markov switching model with time varying probabilities for the transitions. The novelty of our model is that the transition probabilities evolve over time by means of an observation driven model. The innovation of the time varying probability is generated by the score of the predictive likelihood function. We show how the model dynamics can be readily interpreted. We investigat...