This paper investigates the role of management earnings forecasts in mitigating information asymmetry between investors and managers relating to moral hazard, and explains how earnings guidance can facilitate monitoring. I demonstrate that firms that are more susceptible to moral hazard problems and more difficult to monitor are also more likely to issue annual earnings forecasts and they do so...

Despite the large number of papers purporting to identify earnings management, the current techniques used to identify it are sorely lacking. In general, they are based on the assumption that accruals unexplained by a linear projection on firm-level observables (i.e., discretionary accruals) represent either explicit earnings management or poor quality earnings.1 Namely, these techniques assume...

Theory suggests that managers issue earnings forecasts to reduce information asymmetry. An earnings forecast is more effective in reducing information asymmetry if it contains earnings news that is relatively more informative about the firm’s value. We hypothesize that a manager is more likely to issue an earnings forecast if investors perceive that earnings are more informative. We measure ear...

DuPont analysis, a common form of financial statement analysis, decomposes return on net operating assets into two multiplicative components: profit margin and asset turnover. These two accounting ratios measure different constructs and, accordingly, have different properties. Prior research has found that a change in asset turnover is positively related to future changes in earnings. This pape...

Within-year patterns of analysts’ earnings forecasts have been attributed to analysts’ incentives to curry favor with managers by releasing optimistic forecasts at longer horizons, followed by a walkdown to levels at which actual earnings meet or beat the forecast at year end. We propose that forecasting difficulty interacts with such incentives and manifests in the observed walkdown. Although ...

Using a sample of 2,085 voluntarily-provided “unbundled” management earnings forecasts in 1,372 unique press releases during the 1997-2006 period, we find significant incremental pricing effects for linguistic sentiment included in management forecast press releases. Our setting is distinct from those examined in prior linguistic studies in that forecasts are voluntarily issued, incentive-drive...

This study shows that the recent trajectory of a firm’s profits predicts future profitability and stock returns. The predictive information contained in the trend of profitability is not subsumed by the level of profitability, earnings momentum, or other well-known determinants of stock returns. The profit trend also predicts the earnings surprise one quarter later, and analyst forecast errors ...

This paper studies whether managers use investor information they learn from the stock market when making forward-looking disclosures. Using annual management earnings forecasts from 1996 to 2010, I find that the association between forecast revisions and stock price changes over the revision periods is stronger when there is more informed trading. Further, the effect of investor information on...