Beijing’s industrial structure is service-oriented with a high degree of economic openness, and GDP has maintained rapid growth. This paper analyzes the international financial crisis and the impact of China’s anti-crisis policies on Beijing’s economic development as well as its transmission mechanism. Impact Index (excluding seasonal factors) and ARMA Model are employed in the empirical...

This paper is an empirical analysis of the likelihood of failure of inflation stabilization programs. Logit models are estimated on a dataset of 39 programs implemented in 10 countries since the late 1950s, in order to determine which economic and political variables affect the probability of failure of stabilizations. Besides the well-known effects of real exchange rate appreciation, decreasin...

In this paper the long-run trend in CPI inflation (core inflation) for the US over the 1960– 2000 period is estimated using a common trends model. In this framework, core inflation is interpreted and constructed as the long-run forecast of inflation conditional on the information contained in nominal money growth, output fluctuations and movements in the oil price. Unlike other commonly used me...

the frequent occurrence of currency crises in recent years brought the early warning literature back in the researchers spotlight. in recent years, concept of an early warning system (ews) developed that should be able to identify various costly events, such as currency crises, early enough for policy makers to reduce the costs. this study attempted by using iran's economy quarterly data d...

  This is undoubtedly recognized that economic performance for each country over time is related to a great extent to its political, institutional and legal environment. In fact, these institutions and policies are that determine the governance quality.   In a panel data study, we applied newly developed indices to examine the effects of good governance on FDI for fifteen middle-income countri...

this paper aims at comparing tax effort in iran with that of 14 developing countries including jordan, algeria, malaysia, congo, nicaragua, india, sri lanka, paraguay, tunisia, peru, venezuela, philippine, and south africa. a tax ratio model is developed for this purpose. seemingly unrelated regression (sur) method and panel data for 1994-2002 periods are utilized to estimate the model. the res...

This study uses " Multiple Indicators – Multiple Causes" (MIMIC) approach to model the causal relations between main variables, which determine the underground economy in Iran. we Basically, it examines the relationship between underground and official GDP in Iran, using annual time-series data for Iran during 1965 – 2005. Accordingly, it is found that the estimated size of the underground ...

abstract t he relationship between public sector deficits and inflation is one of the important and controversial issues in the academic literature as well as in economic policy field. on the other hand, a major objective of macroeconomic policies is to foster economic growth and to keep inflation on a low level. so keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth r...

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data spanning 1980–2000. The P model is shown to have considerable empirical support. Thus, the “price gap” or, equivalently, the “real money gap” (the gap between current real balances and long-run equilibrium real balances), has substantial predictive power for future inflation. The...