Recent dramatic increases in damages caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) and improved understanding of TC physics have led DHS to fund research on intentional hurricane modification. We present a decision analytic assessment of whether it is potentially cost-effective to attempt to lower the wind speed of TCs approaching South Florida by reducing sea surface temperatures with wind-wave pumps. Usi...

A method is offered to estimate downtime (the time to restore a facility to operability, not total repair time) for second-generation performance-based earthquake engineering. It applies in cases where downtime is primarily controlled by nonstructural systems (although red-tagging and lifeline failure are addressed); restoration begins immediately after the earthquake; and components are repair...

There is growing interest in floodplain conservation as a flood damage reduction strategy, particularly given the co-benefits protected lands provide. We evaluate one such investment—a greenway along the Meramec River in St. Louis County, Missouri. We estimate the opportunity costs, the avoided flood damages, and the capitalization of proximity to protected lands into nearby home prices. To est...

This research examines changes in residential built-environment flood exposure within the current boundaries of the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan statistical area, by estimating the number of housing units that are located within the floodplains of the region. Housing unit data at the block level from the 1990 to 2010 decennial censuses are used to estimate housing unit exposure to floods using...

BACKGROUND A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. METHODS An innovative model was formulated based on a ...

١٣ ١٤ The era of earthquake risk and loss estimation basically began with the seminal paper on ١٥ earthquake, the first studies placed strong emphasis on the prediction of human losses ١٧ (number of casualties and injured) and to foresee the needs in terms of health care and ١٨ shelters in the immediate aftermath of a strong event. In contrast to the early risk modeling ١٩ efforts, the later st...

Abstract A general methodology to evaluate vulnerability functions suitable for a probabilistic global risk assessment is proposed. The methodology is partially based in the methodological approach of the Multihazard Loss Estimation Methodology (Hazus) developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The vulnerability assessment process considers the resolution, information and limi...

Fragility curves, commonly derived using analytical methods, are important ingredients of seismic risk analysis structures in the framework performance-based earthquake engineering. Hence, accurate estimation realistic fragility functions is a decisive *: Bayesian updating considering diffuse prior step reliable assessment. This paper proposes procedure applied to curves reinforced concrete (RC...