Average global surface-air temperature is increasing. Contention exists over relative contributions by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Ecological studies attribute plant and animal changes to observed warming. Until now, temperature-species connections have not been statistically attributed directly to anthropogenic climatic change. Using modeled climatic variables and observed species data...

The offline linearized ocean–atmosphere model (LOAM), which was developed to quantify the impact of the climatological mean state on the variability of the El Ni~ no–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is used to illuminate why ENSO changed between the modern-day and early/mid-Holocene simulations in two climate modeling studies using the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled M...

The sensitivity of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to changes in mean climate is investigated for simulations of pre-industrial and mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climate using the Hadley Centre coupled atmosphere-ocean model, HadCM3. Orbitally-forced changes in insolation in the mid-Holocene produce changes in seasonality which may alter ENSO amplitude and frequency. The model si...

Climate change is one of the leading issues affecting river basins due to its direct impacts on cryosphere and hydrosphere. General circulation models (GCMs) are widely applied tools assess climate but coarse spatial resolution GCMs limit their application for local studies. This study selected five CMIP5 (CCSM4, HadCM3, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3 CanESM2) performance evaluation ranked by Nash–Sutclif...

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor ...