This paper considers two issues. Firstly it examines the efficacy of a mechanical trading model freely available from the ‘Turtletrader’ web page on the Internet. The results are tested against the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) Weak-Form as proposed by Fama (1970). The findings show that EMH Weak-Form fails to describe the profits generated by the model when examining CBOT Corn and T-Bond f...

We describe an end-to-end real-time S&P futures trading system. Inner-shell stochastic nonlinear dynamic models are developed, and canonical momenta indicators are derived from a fitted Lagrangian used by outer-shell trading models dependent on these indicators. Recursive and adaptive optimization using adaptive simulated annealing is used for fitting parameters shared across these shells of dy...

In this paper we study whether the commodity futures market predicts the commodity spot market. Using historical daily data on four commodities—oil, gold, platinum, and silver—we find that they do. We then show how investors can use this information on the futures market to devise trading strategies and make profits. In particular, dynamic trading strategies based on a mean–variance investor fr...

The paper reports the results of an empirical study of the price relation between the German Performance Stock Index, DAX, and DAX futures. An ex-ante arbitrage strategy based on arbitrage signals is analyzed. The data set contains intraday bidand ask futures quotes and index values on a minute by minute basis. It is found that the number and persistence of arbitrage opportunities differs consi...

This paper examines the weak form market efficiency using transactions data. Previous studies have mainly used daily data to investigate whether trading rules can result in abnormal profits with mixed results. This study on the other hand uses trade-by-trade data to apply trading rules such as moving average and filter. Two different futures contracts the Australian All Ordinaries Index traded ...

A lgorithmic trading of securities has become a staple of modern approaches to financial investment. In this project, I attempt to obtain an effective strategy for trading a collection of 27 financial futures based solely on their past trading data. All of the strategies that I consider are based on predictions of the future price and volatility of the various securities under consideration, an...

Simulations and games are widely accepted as a powerful mode of teaching and learning. This is especially so in the field of finance in teaching students the intricacies of stock market trading. Stock market simulations complement more traditional methods of teaching finance by encouraging learning by doing, by generating motivation and enjoyment, and by engaging the business student in a simul...

~t1JNCE the introduction of futures trading in 3-month Treasury bills in 1976, yields on these futures contracts have been examined for clues as to market expectations of the future course of interest rates. Although there are difficulties in isolating these expectations, the yields on futures contracts do embody information about market expectations of future interest rates.’ However, similar ...

This paper proposes a profit model for spread trading by focusing on the stochastic movement of the price spread and its first hitting time probability density. The model is general in that it can be used for any financial instrument. The advantage of the model is that the profit from the trades can be easily calculated if the first hitting time probability density of the stochastic process is ...

This study intends to mine reasonable trading rules using genetic algorithms for Korea Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) futures. We have found trading rule which would have yielded the highest return over a certain time period using historical data. Simulated results of buying and selling of trading rules were outstanding. These preliminary results suggest that genetic algorithms are promising...