In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a sta...

In a standard overlapping generations model, active monetary policy reinforces mechanisms that lead to equilibrium indeterminacy and to countercyclical behavior of young-age consumption. The policy rule which minimizes inflation volatility can be active or passive, depending on the characteristics of shocks and the risk aversion of households. Inflation forecast errors are always greater under ...

Using data from 1990-2013, we show 1) the serial correlation of analyst forecast errors increases in the extent of international diversification, 2) PEAD based on analyst forecast errors increases in the extent of international diversification, and 3) the impact of international diversification on the serial correlation of analyst forecast errors and the associated drift is significantly reduce...

medication error (me) is the most common preventable cause of adverse drug events which negatively affects patient safety. inadequate, low-quality studies plus wide estimation variations in me from developing countries including iran, decreases the reliability of me evaluations. to clarify sources, underreporting reasons and preventive measures of mes, we reviewed iran current available literat...

Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The famili...

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year...