Precipitation forecast verification is essential to the quality of a forecast. The Gaussian Mixture Model can be used to approximate the precipitation of several rain bands and provide a concise view of the data, which is especially useful for comparing forecast and observation data. The robustness of such comparison mainly depends on the consistency of and the correspondence between the extrac...

Gilliland defines FVA as “the change in a forecasting performance metric that can be PREVIEW A business forecast is normally produced by applying overrides and modifications to an initial statistical forecast. Whether these adjustments to the statistical forecast improve forecast performance is always an important question – one to which the Forecast Value Added (FVA) concept can be applied. In...

Many contemporaneously aggregated variables have stochastic aggregation weights. We compare different forecasts for such variables including univariate forecasts of the aggregate, a multivariate forecast of the aggregate that uses information from the disaggregate components, a forecast which aggregates a multivariate forecast of the disaggregate components and the aggregation weights, and a fo...

Recent research suggests that optimistically biased earnings forecasts issued by analysts are attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions. We test an alternative explanation, namely that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on skewne...

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In this paper, we build upon a recently proposed forecast combination-based approach to the reconciliation of simple hierarchy (Hollyman R., Petropoulos F., Tipping M.E., Understanding reconciliation, European Journal Operational Research , 2021, 294, 149–160) and extend it in some new directions. particular, provide insights into nature mathematical derivation level- l conditional coherent ( L...

accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts (qpfs) have been always a demanding and challenging job in numerical weather prediction (nwp). the outputs of ensemble prediction systems (epss) in the form of probability forecasts provide a valuable tool for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (pqpfs). in this research, different configurations of wrf and mm5 meso-scale models form ...

The sensitivity of forecasts to observations is evaluated using an ensemble approach with data drawn from a pseudo-operational ensemble Kalman filter. For Gaussian statistics and a forecast metric defined as a scalar function of the forecast variables, the effect of observations on the forecast metric is quantified by changes in the metric mean and variance. For a single observation, expression...