In this paper the properties of a hydrometeorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster’s approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more...

Each winter and early spring, the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) faces the challenge of forecasting river stage and flow for ice affected rivers. “Stage versus flow” relationships tend to be in error and there is a lack of real-time information about the nature of the ice cover. The NERFC is investigating methods to forecast river stage and flow for ice-affected rivers because in times...

The predictive analysis of natural disasters and their consequences is challenging because of uncertainties and incomplete data. The present article studies the use of variable fuzzy sets (VFS) and improved information diffusion method (IIDM) to construct a composite method. The proposed method aims to integrate multiple factors and quantification of uncertainties within a consistent system for...

Flood is one of the most important natural disasters affect China greatly, especially for southeast cities. To help mitigate the loss brought by it, technologies such as simulation, visualization, decision support system, etc. could be utilized in the process of emergency management for city flood. Thus the Flood Simulation and Decision Support System (FSDSS) comes into being. It is an integrat...

Topographic data are increasingly available at high resolutions (<10 m) over large spatial extents to support detailed flood inundation modeling and loss estimation analyses required for flood risk management. This paper describes ParBreZo, the parallel implementation of a two-dimensional, Godunovtype, shallow-water code, to address the computational demand of high-resolution flood modeling at ...

It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM) and bound methods are u...

• The use of HEPS is an effective and promising non-structural measure to help mitigate flood risk in Milano urban area, synergic with the existing structural engineering works. • A forecast horizon of two days is required for an operational chain over the Milano basins, and accurate quantitative forecasts are necessary at least one day in advance. • The pragmatic set of “shifted” configuration...