نتایج جستجو برای: epidemic forecasting
تعداد نتایج: 88968 فیلتر نتایج به سال:
An important challenge in modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic is to use the increasing quantity of disease surveillance data to validate estimates and forecasts. Presented is a novel model for forecasting HIV incidence by age and sex and among sentinel groups for which data are available. This approach permits a closer relationship...
Mathematical models have been powerful tools in developing mechanistic understanding of infectious diseases. Furthermore, they have allowed detailed forecasting of epidemiological phenomena such as outbreak size, which is of considerable public-health relevance. The short generation time of pathogens and the strong selection they are subjected to (by host immunity, vaccines, chemotherapy, etc.)...
Epidemic forecasting is the key to effective control of epidemic transmission and helps world mitigate crisis that threatens public health. To better understand evolution epidemics, we propose EpiGNN, a graph neural network-based model for forecasting. Specifically, design risk encoding module characterize local global spatial effects regions in processes incorporate them into model. Meanwhile,...
BACKGROUND Influenza outbreaks affect millions of people every year and its surveillance is usually carried out in developed countries through a network of sentinel doctors who report the weekly number of Influenza-like Illness cases observed among the visited patients. Monitoring and forecasting the evolution of these outbreaks supports decision makers in designing effective interventions and ...
BACKGROUND An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. METHODS We use existing...
Background: An Ebola outbreak of unparalleled size is currently affecting several countries in West Africa, and international efforts to control the outbreak are underway. However, the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on an Ebola epidemic of this size, is unknown. Forecasting and simulation of these interventions may inform public health efforts. Methods: We use existing...
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has placed epidemic modeling at center of attention public policymaking. Predicting severity and speed transmission COVID-19 is crucial to resource management developing strategies deal with this epidemic. Based on available data from current previous outbreaks, many efforts hav...
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