Anomaly detection is important to learn from major past events and to prepare for future crises. We propose a new anomaly detection method that visualizes multivariate data in a 2or 3-dimensional space based on the probability of belonging to a mixture component and the probability of not belonging to any components. It helps to visually understand not only the magnitude of anomalies but also t...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with multiple equilibria arise in the model. But the model yields distinctive predictions about the behav...

Executive Summary Currency crises tend to be regional. Since macroeconomic and financial phenomena are not regional, these phenomena are unimportant in understanding why crises spread. But international trade is regional, as countries tend to trade with their neighbors. This suggests that trade links are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic p...

Sustainability for a society means long-term viability, but also the ability to cope with economic crises and disasters. Just as with natural disasters, we can minimize the chance of them occurring and set in place policies to protect the world’s citizens against their consequences. This paper is concerned with the impact of economic crises on the inequality of resources and with the impact of ...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with multiple equilibria arise in the model. But the model yields distinctive predictions about the behav...

Crisis incidents occur in both business and public domains. This article focuses on non-routine incidents and explores uses of technologies for supporting crisis management tasks. A Crisis Incident Spiral of Decision Support helps identify useful decision support and information technologies. Additionally, a Crisis Incident Process/Decision Support Matrix categorizes processes of crisis plannin...

It is well known that equity, currency, or banking crises generate substantial real costs for the country in which they occur. Authorities and financial market participants have often been concerned that these crises would spill over or spread, leading to financial system volatility or crises elsewhere in the world. The recent Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises are examples where shocks origina...

We analyze the effect of risk aversion, wealth and portfolios on the behavior of investors in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action choices. The model generates a rich set of striking theoretical predictions. For example, risk aversion makes currency crises significantly less likely; increased wealth makes crises more likely; and foreign direct investment (illiquid inves...