Economic theory tells us that market and credit risks are intrinsically related to each other and not separable. We describe the two main approaches to pricing credit risky instruments: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. It is argued that the standard approaches to credit risk management ± CreditMetrics, CreditRisk+ and KMV ± are of limited value when applied to portfolios o...

We consider the modelling of dependent defaults in large credit portfolios using latent variable models (the approach that underlies KMV and CreditMetrics) and mixture models (the approach underlying CreditRisk). We explore the role of copulas in the latent variable framework and show that for given default probabilities of individual obligors the distribution of the number of defaults in the p...

In a single period framework, we develop a supply portfolio risk assessment tool for raw material procurement in the presence of supply risk (owing to contract breaches), demand risk and the spot price risk. Contract breaches are operational risk events that are classified under the “Clients, Products and Business Practices” category of the Basel II framework. We allow for the negative financia...

The Credit Risk+ model is one of the industry standards for estimating the credit default risk for a portfolio of credit loans. The natural parameterization of this model requires the default probability to be apportioned using a number of (non-negative) factor loadings. However, in practice only default correlations are often available but not the factor loadings. In this paper we investigate ...

Getting loans from banks are almost impossible after 2008 global financial crisis. As a result, about 80% of companies in United Kingdom and United States offer their products on various short-term, free-interest loans (i.e., trade credit) to customers. Numerous researchers and academicians apply discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis merely to compute the interest earned and charged during the cr...

Within the past two years, important advances have been made in modeling credit risk at the portfolio level. Practitioners and policy makers have invested in implementing and exploring a variety of new models individually. Less progress has been made, however, with comparative analyses. Direct comparison often is not straightforward, because the di€erent models may be presented within rather di...

CREDIT RISK MODELLING AND QUANTIFICATION Credit risk modelling and quantification is a very crucial issue in bank management and has become more popular among practitioners and academicians in recent years because of the changes and developments in banking and financial systems. CreditMetrics of J.P. Morgan, KMV Portfolio Manager, CreditRisk+ of Credit Suisse First Boston, and McKinsey’s Credit...

The present paper aimed at studying the current models of credit portfolio management. There are currently three types of models which consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (Moody's KMV model, and Credit- Metrics model), the intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the Macro-factors model). The development of these three types of models is based...