Ambiguity in the inputs of the models is typical especially in portfolio selection problem where the true distribution of random variables is usually unknown. Here we use robust optimization approach to address the ambiguity in conditional-value-at-risk minimization model. We obtain explicit models of the robust conditional-value-at-risk minimization for polyhedral and correlated polyhedral am...

We have used a linear Genetic Programming system with a multitude of different quotes on financial securities as input in order to evolve an intraday trading strategy for an individual stock, attempting to outperform a simple buy and hold strategy over the same period of time.

We examine the optimal trading strategy for a CRRA investor who maximizes the expected utility of wealth on a finite date and faces transaction costs. Closed-form solutions are obtained when this date is uncertain. We then show a sequence of analytical solutions converge to the solution to the problem with a deterministic finite horizon. Consistent with the common life-cycle investment advice, ...

In this paper, we document that an application of a moving average timing strategy of technical analysis to portfolios sorted by volatility generates investment timing portfolios that substantially outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. For high-volatility portfolios, the abnormal returns, relative to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Fama-French 3-factor models, are of great econom...

In this paper, we model a stock dynamic using Hidden Markov Model (HMM) where weekly return is normally distributed with mean and variance depending on the hidden random variable representing the stock trend. Using Expectation-Maximization algorithm, we estimate all the parameters and design a simple trading strategy based on it. We then compare its performance with Buy and Hold and Resistance ...

The efficient markets hypothesis asserts that the price of an asset reflects all of the information that can be obtained from past prices of the asset. A direct corollary of this hypothesis is that stock prices follow a random walk, and that any profits derived from timing the market are due entirely to chance. In the absence of any ability to predict the market, the most appropriate strategy—a...