This paper tests the importance of real shocks as sources of fluctuations in iran’s economy. For this purpose, based on the work of Boschen and Mills, a set of non-monetary variables which can affect economic growth have been selected and by using an illustrative business cycle model in which the production depends on the past and current value of real shocks, the influence 01’ these variables ...

Abstract This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The is derived applying the statistical method Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, grasps development broader activity has several advantages over assessment quarterly series Gross Do...

A modelling framework is proposed in which the real time informational context of decision-making is properly reflected. Comparisons are drawn with ‘standard’ estimated models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. An analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1 shows that n...

0

This paper deals with the existence of a common European growth cycle and its identification. Based on the analysis of some descriptive statistics in the time and frequency domain there is clear evidence of comovement in output growth among European countries. Univariate Markov switching autoregressions (MS-AR) are used for individual countries in order to detect changes in the mean growth rate...

We develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model with a continuum of different industries, each comprising a finite number of strategic price-setting firms. Each industry coordinates on profit-maximizing markups taking as given the strategic behavior of all other industries. The strategic behavior of all firms jointly determines the level of aggregate consumption in each state, which in...

The mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expectations macroeconomic models-a real business cycle model, a sticky price model and a liquidity effect mo...