This paper considers the errors that arise in using outdated accident prediction models in road safety scheme evaluation. Methods to correct for regression-to-mean (RTM) effects in scheme evaluation normally rely on the use of accident prediction models. However, because accident risk tends to decline over time, such models tend to become outdated and the estimated treatment effect is then exag...

There has been an enormous amount of resources spent on collecting data related to construction accidents but there are very few researches done on analyzing the collected data beyond trend analysis. This research is based on the premise that construction accident reports can be exploited much more than they currently are to obtain valuable information. Analyzing texts in accident reports in ad...

HIV latency is the chief obstacle to eradicating HIV but is widely believed to be an evolutionary accident providing no lentiviral fitness advantage. However, findings of latency being "hardwired" into HIV's gene-regulatory circuitry appear inconsistent with latency being an evolutionary accident, given HIV's rapid mutation rate. Here, we propose that latency is an evolutionary "bet-hedging" st...

This paper presents an empirical inquiry into the applicability of zero-altered counting processes to roadway section accident frequencies. The intent of such a counting process is to distinguish sections of roadway that are truly safe (near zero-accident likelihood) from those that are unsafe but happen to have zero accidents observed during the period of observation (e.g. one year). Tradition...

One of the most important and effective factors in prioritizing high accident prone segments of roads for pedestrians is accident cause which up to now has been neglected in current methods. Since accidents are not additives due to various reasons, prioritizing these segments without considering the accident cause makes the selection of high accident prone segments inaccurate. In this paper, by...

This paper revisits the question of the relationship between rural road geometric characteristics, accident rates and their prediction, using a rigorous non-parametric statistical methodology known as hierarchical tree-based regression. The goal of this paper is twofold: first, it develops a methodology that quantitatively assesses the effects of various highway geometric characteristics on acc...