This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for ve Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) agains...

International relations scholars have developed many theories to describe the evolution and existence of international conflicts. One important idea is the “democratic peace,” which argues that democracies are less likely to engage in conflict with each other. However, much of the work testing democratic peace theory has been static and does not address dynamic, causal mechanisms by which democ...

Central banks and other forecasters have become increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility — such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices and the deep global recession — pose significant challenges to density forecasting. Accordingly, th...

Central banks and other forecasters are increasingly interested in various aspects of density forecasts. However, recent sharp changes in macroeconomic volatility – such as the Great Moderation and the more recent sharp rise in volatility associated with greater variation in energy prices and the deep global recession – pose significant challenges to density forecasting. Accordingly, this paper...

Myotilin and the calsarcin family member FATZ-1 (also called calsarcin-2 or myozenin-1) are recently discovered sarcomeric proteins implicated in the assembly and stabilization of the Z-discs in skeletal muscle. The essential role of myotilin in skeletal muscle is attested by the observation that certain forms of myofibrillar myopathy and limb girdle muscular dystrophy are caused by mutations i...