Included here are two appendices. Appendix A has information on model priors, selected material on the data, and some details on computation. Appendix B contains an extended treatment of alternative measures of stress, and alternative measures of real activity, including how these measures compare to the base case model in terms of picking up the same state probabilities and, in some cases, qua...

Is credit expansion a sign of desirable financial deepening or the prelude to an inevitable bust? We study this question in modern US data using structural VAR model 10 monthly frequency variables, identified by heteroskedasticity. Negative reduced-form responses output growth are caused endogenous monetary policy response shocks. On average, and remain positively associated. “Financial stress”...

We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine influence of detected on financial markets. find that, controlling for Reserve’s actions sentiment policy texts, positive tone voices Reserve chairs leads significant increases share prices. Other variables also respond vocal cues from chairs. Hence, how...

We show that during the Great Recession, more-flexible sectors paid lower sectoral bond spreads. rationalize this fact with a model input-output linkages, heterogeneous elasticities, and binding working capital constraints in use of intermediates. difference flexibility between upstream downstream is key for determining role linkages amplifying or mitigating distortions. Calibrating to US econo...

Credit spreads display occasional spikes and are more strongly countercyclical in times of elevated financial stress. Financial crises extreme cases this nonlinear behavior, featuring skyrocketing credit spreads, sharp losses bank equity, deep recessions. We develop estimate a macroeconomic model with banking sector which banks’ leverage constraints occasionally binding equity issuance is endog...

This paper evaluates the literature on international unconventional monetary policies (UMPs). Introducing market segmentation, limits-to-arbitrage, and time-consistent policy in standard models permits a theoretical role for UMP. Empirical studies provide compelling evidence that UMPs influenced asset prices tail risk desired manner. Calibrated modeling vector autoregressive (VAR) exercises imp...