[1] The 24-year retrospective forecast data set from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is analyzed to study its idealized predictability of precipitation and temperature under its current configuration. The analysis approach assumes the forecasting model and system to be predicted share exactly the same physics so that the idealized predictability is calculated and serves as the upper limi...

Temperature is one of the main climatic elements that can indicate climate change as climate change seems to be one of the most important issues in the recent two decades. The aim of this research is to study temporal variation in temperature over Dibrugarh city, Assam, India during the period 1981–2010. In this article we are interested in the time series modeling of the average monthly mean t...

Generating one-month-ahead systematic (beta) risk forecasts is common place in financial management. This paper evaluates the accuracy of these beta forecasts in three return measurement settings; monthly, daily and 30 minutes. It is found that the popular Fama-MacBeth beta from 5 years of monthly returns generates the most accurate beta forecast among estimators based on monthly returns. A rea...

[1] How well can the extent of arctic sea ice be predicted for lead periods of up to one year? The forecast ability of a linear empirical model is explored. It uses as predictors historical information about the ocean and ice obtained from an ice–ocean model retrospective analysis. The monthly model fields are represented by a correlation-weighted average based on the predicted ice extent. The ...

This study investigated the effects of climatic variables, particularly, rainfall and temperature, on malaria incidence using time series analysis. Our preliminary analysis revealed that malaria incidence in the study area decreased at about 0.35% annually. Also, the month of November recorded approximately 21% more malaria cases than the other months while September had a decreased effect of a...

â â â  in this study, ability and skill of the nesting version of the regcm3 regional climate model in simulation of monthly and seasonal amount of precipitation and temperature using four different cumulus parameterization of grell-as, grell-fc, emanuel and kuo have been studied over khorasan area including three provinces of north khorasan, khorasan razavi and south khorasan. in this regards,...

This paper applies receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis to M3 Competition, micro monthly time series for one-month-ahead forecasts. Using the partial area under the curve (PAUC) criterion as a forecast accuracy measure and paired-comparison testing via bootstrapping, we find that complex methods (AutomatANN, Flores-Pearce2, Forecast ProSmart FCS, and Theta) perform best for forecas...