This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for ve Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) agains...

this study investigated the dynamic relationship between money, prices and output in a multivariate structure of casualty analysis in iran for the two period of 1969 to 2012 (entire period) and 1989 to 2012 (sub-period). this statistical framework has been projected for situations where causal links may have changed over the sample period. results of a three-variable vector error correction mod...

Since Quenouille’s influential work on multiple time series, much progress has been made towards the goal of parameter reduction and model fit. Relatively less attention has been paid to the systematic evaluation of out-of-sample forecast performance of multivariate time series models. In this paper, we update the hog data set studied by Quenouille (and other researchers who followed him). We r...

Background & objectives: Despite the importance and impact of health and education on economic growth in countries, the causal relationship between education and health is important to policymaking. This study aimed to investigate the causality relationship between education and health in the short and long runs using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in Iran. Method: This was an analyt...

This study investigated the dynamic relationship between money, prices and output in a multivariate structure of casualty analysis in Iran for the two period of 1969 to 2012 (entire period) and 1989 to 2012 (sub-period). This statistical framework has been projected for situations where causal links may have changed over the sample period. Results of a three-variable Vector Error Correction Mod...

Model selection and associated issues of post-model selection inference present well known challenges in empirical econometric research. These modeling issues are manifest in all applied work but they are particularly acute in multivariate time series settings such as cointegrated systems where multiple interconnected decisions can materially a¤ect the form of the model and its interpretation. ...