W hether the United Kingdom (UK) should remain in the European Union (EU) or not has been a fiercely debated issue both before and after the referendum in the UK on June 23, 2016. The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the pros and cons of the UK leaving the EU. It is concluded that if the UK leaves the EU, the resulting economic shock would risk adverse effects on macroecono...

We surveyed the empirical literature using multi-country computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to analyse potential and actual regional trade agreements (RTAs). The studies indicate that these RTAs improve welfare, that trade creation greatly exceeds trade diversion, and that they are consistent with further global liberalisation. The welfare gains are bigger when models incorporate aspec...

Some economists worry about the ‘spaghetti bowl phenomenon’ expected from proliferating regional trade agreements (RTAs). In particular, the complicated web of hub-and-spoke type of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) can result in high costs for verifying rules of origin (RoO) and trade diversion or suppression effects. This explains why almost half of the RTAs notified to the General Agr...

This paper develops and estimates a structural model of imperfect competition in international markets. The model incorporates a flexible non-linear demand framework with structural price equations, and a general Conjectural Variation approach is developed to characterize strategic interaction. The model is used to evaluate the effects of the signature by a small open economy, Lebanon, of a Pre...