Three different classes of numerical models successfully predicted the occurrence of the El Niño of 1986-87 at lead times of 3 to 9 months. Although the magnitude and timing of predicted ocean surface temperatures were not perfect, these results suggest that routine prediction of moderate to lare El Niño events is feasible. The key to the success of the models lies in recognizing or simulating ...

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t South Pacific subtropical density compensated temperature and salinity (spiciness) anomalies are known to be associated with decadal equatorial variability, however, the mechanisms by which such disturbances are generated, advect and the degree to which they modulate the equatorial thermocline remains controversial. During the late 1970's a climate regime t...

Southern California kelp forests experienced major losses during the El Nino of 1957-1959. The proximal reason for the decline was ascribed to sea urchin grazing, and the eventual recovery of some forests followed sea urchin control efforts, kelp restoration, and improvements In sewage disposal practices. The very strong El Nirio of 1982-84 allowed us to reexamine hypotheses regarding the inter...

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model is presented for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation that reproduces its major features, including its recurrence at irregular intervals. The interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle is maintained by deterministic interactions in the tropical Pacific region. Ocean dynamics alter sea-surface temperature, changing the atmospheric heating; the resulting chan...

The impact of climate variability on the water cycle in desert ecosystems is controlled by biospheric feedback at interannual to millennial timescales. This paper describes a unique field dataset from weighing lysimeters beneath nonvegetated and vegetated systems that unequivocally demonstrates the role of vegetation dynamics in controlling water cycle response to interannual climate variabilit...

High resolution pollen analysis of mid- to late-Holocene peat deposits from southwest Florida reveals a stepwise increase in wetland vegetation that points to an increased precipitation-driven fresh water flow during the past 5,000 years. The tight coupling between winter precipitation patterns in Florida and the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly suggests that the pal...

The expansion of modern human populations in Africa 80,000 to 60,000 years ago and their initial exodus out of Africa have been tentatively linked to two phases of technological and behavioral innovation within the Middle Stone Age of southern Africa-the Still Bay and Howieson's Poort industries-that are associated with early evidence for symbols and personal ornaments. Establishing the correct...

We develop a new approach to carrier transport between the edge states via resonant scattering on impurities, which is applicable both for short and long range impurities. A detailed analysis of resonant scattering on a single impurity is performed. The results are used for study of the inter-edge transport by multiple resonant hopping via different impurities’ sites. It is shown that the total...

In this talk I review the potential of Icecube for revealing physics beyond the standard model in the oscillation of atmospheric neutrinos [1].