The objective of this study was to model seasonal behavior of broiler price in Iran that can be used to forecast the monthly broiler prices. In this context, the periodic autoregressive (PAR), the seasonal integrated models, and the Box-Jenkins (SARIMA) models were used as the primary nominates for the forecasting model. It was shown that the PAR (q) model could not be considered as an appropri...

Resource managers at the state, federal, and tribal levels make decisions on a weekly to quarterly basis, and fishers operate on a similar timeframe. To determine the potential of a support tool for these efforts, a seasonal forecast system is experimented with here. JISAO's Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) features dynamical downscaling of regional ocean conditions ...

Fuzzy time series forecasting methods has got more and more attention in recent years since they have a good capability of forecasting real-world time series which contains uncertainty. There have been various fuzzy time series forecasting methods in the literature. On the other hand, just a few ones have been proposed to forecast seasonal time series. When a seasonal time series is forecasted,...

Recent research has produced a number of methods for forecasting seasonal influenza outbreaks. However, differences among the predicted outcomes of competing forecast methods can limit their use in decision-making. Here, we present a method for reconciling these differences using Bayesian model averaging. We generated retrospective forecasts of peak timing, peak incidence, and total incidence f...

Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed...

Drought hazards, and the ability to mitigate them with advance warning, offer potentially valuable applications of climate forecast products. Yet the value is often untapped, owing to the gap between climate science and societal decisions. This study bridged that gap; it determined forecast needs among water managers, translated forecasts to meet those needs, and shaped drought decision making ...

Especially for drought periods, the higher the accuracy of reservoir inflow forecasting, the 9 more reliable the water supply from a dam. The article focuses on probabilistic forecasting of 10 seasonal inflow to reservoirs and determines estimates from the probabilistic seasonal inflow 11 according to drought forecast results. The probabilistic seasonal inflow was forecasted by a copula12 based...

In the present age of globalization, technology-revolution and sustainable development, the presence of seasonality in tourist arrivals is considered as a key policy issue that affects the global tourism industry by creating instability in the demand and revenues. The seasonal component in a time-series distorts the prediction attempts for policy-making. In this context, it is quintessential to...