Jack Goldstone argues that Comparative Historical Analysis (CHA) holds a distinct epistemological orientation vis-a-vis large-N , frequentist approaches that has proven to be particularly fertile for the study of revolutions. He begins by sketching this CHA epistemology, focusing on its use of Bayesian analysis, process tracing, and congruence testing. Goldstone then proceeds to show, via a his...

This paper develops an empirical macroeconomic framework to analyze the relationship between major political disruptions and business cycles of a country. We combine a new dataset of political revolutions (mass domestic political campaigns to remove dictators and juntas) across the world since 1960, with coup data and traditional macro data (of output, investment, trade, inflation and exchange ...

Generic programming allows you to write a function once, and use it many times at different types. Traditionally, generic functions are defined by induction on the structure of types. “Scrap your boilerplate” (SYB) is a radically different approach that dispatches on the structure of values. In previous work, we have shown how to reconcile both approaches using the concept of generic views: man...

Abstract In recent years, the question of what form a revolutionary uprising will take – armed or unarmed has been raised more often. This is because, as shown by numerous studies, nonviolence can explain why an fails succeeds to lead democracy. decades likelihood revolution being nonviolent appears have significantly increased, but it still not clear this tendency observed. Moreover, there are...

During technological revolutions, stock prices of innovative firms tend to exhibit high volatility and bubble-like patterns, which are often attributed to investor irrationality. We develop a general equilibrium model that rationalizes the observed price patterns. The high volatility results from high uncertainty about the average productivity of a new technology. Investors learn about this pro...