One challenge of economics is that the systems treated by these sciences have no perfect metronome in time and no perfect spatial architecture—crystalline or otherwise. Nonetheless, as if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. We present an overview of recent research joining practitioners of economic theory and statistical physics to try to b...

Extreme events such as natural or technological disasters challenge society’s capabilities for planning and response. While advanced technologies and modeling techniques continue to expand how society can limit and manage extreme events, flexibility and an ability to improvise remain crucial in responding to them. By analyzing a case from the response to the 2001 World Trade Center attack, this...

A methodology is proposed for studying rare events in stochastic partial differential equations in systems that are so large that standard large deviation theory does not apply. The idea is to deduce the behavior of the original model by breaking the system into appropriately scaled subsystems that are sufficiently small for large deviation theory to apply but sufficiently large to be asymptoti...

The influence of the multi-boson effects on pion multiplicities, single-pion spectra and two-pion correlation functions is discussed in terms of an analytically solvable model. It is argued that spectacular multi-boson effects are likely to be observed only in the rare events containing sufficiently high density fluctuations. The possibilities of unlike particle correlations for a study of the ...

The ANN-based mesoscale-microscale coupling model forecasts wind speed and wind direction with high accuracy for wind parks located in complex terrain onshore, yet some weather regimes remains unresolved and forecast of such events failing. The model's generalization improved significantly when categorization information added as an input. The improved model is able to resolve extreme events an...

a Center for Stock Assessment Research and Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, United States b MRAG Americas, POB 1410 Capitola, California 95010, United States c Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Parma, Viale G. P. Usberti 33/A, I-43100 Parma, Italy d Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, Pacific G...

[1] The observed trends in extreme precipitation events, and those in annual and seasonal mean precipitation in China during 1961–2001 are analyzed. The results show that the annual mean precipitation increases significantly in southwest, northwest, and east China, and decreases significantly in central, north and northeast China. The increasing trends in east China occurred mainly in summer, w...

This article proposes a method to quantitatively measure the resilience of transportation systems using GPS data from taxis. The granularity of the GPS data necessary for this analysis is relatively coarse; it only requires coordinates for the beginning and end of trips, the metered distance, and the total travel time. The method works by computing the historical distribution of pace (normalize...

We introduce a simulation model of the port of Calais with a focus on the operation of immigration controls. Our aim is to compare the cost and benefits of different screening policies. Methodologically, we are trying to understand the limits of discrete event simulation of rare events. When will they become “too rare” for simulation to give meaningful results?

Rare events are often described by a Poisson distribution. In clinical research the examination of such rare events could be the basis of a non-inferiority trial. In order to plan such a trial the power of a statistical test comparing two Poisson distributions is required. The purpose of this paper is to present a method for calculating size and power of three statistical tests. The method can ...