We consider the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth for a power utility of the risk-averse type assuming that the dynamics of the risky assets are affected by hidden “economic factors” that evolve as a finite-state Markov process. For this partially observable stochastic control problem we determine a corresponding complete observation problem that turns out to be of the...

In the trend towards tolerating hardware unreliability, accuracy is exchanged for cost savings. Running on less reliable machines, functionally correct code becomes risky and one needs to know how risk propagates so as to mitigate it. Risk estimation, however, seems to live outside the average programmer’s technical competence and core practice. In this paper we propose that program design by s...

We present a new approach to the design and implementation of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs), based on idea stochastically estimating probability density ratios necessary for inference. By relaxing usual PPL constraint that these densities be computed exactly, we are able eliminate many common restrictions in current PPLs, deliver language that, first time, simultaneously supports f...

Preference reversals occur when different (but formally equivalent) elicitation methods reveal conflicting preferences over two alternatives. This paper shows that when people have fuzzy preferences i.e. when they choose in a probabilistic manner, their observed decisions can generate systematic preference reversals. A simple model of probabilistic choice and valuation can account for a higher ...