introduction: continuous fluctuations in the prices of agricultural commodities have a significant effect on the situation of countries, especially developing countries in the world. in the short term, the impact of price shocks on imports of agricultural commodities and balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves is considerable in developing countries and it has negative effects on soci...

economic stabilization is one of the main government objectives in the economy. one of the most destructive and devastating factors that could damage financial markets, are price bubble formations. thus, bubble creation in stock markets can be considered as a result of investor behaviors, because the market prices mainly reflect investor expectations from firm’s future perspectives. the aim of ...

We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [20] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with empirical data. The idea is that the price fluctuations associated with bubbles must on average grow with the mean market return r. When r is larger than the discount rate rδ , the...

A weighted replicator dynamic describes how agents switch between a forecast based on fundamentals, a rational bubble forecast and a re‡ective forecast, a weighted average of the former two. If the innovations to the extraneous martingale have a similar magnitude to those of the dividend process and agents are su¢ ciently aggressive in switching forecasting strategies, a signi…cant portion of t...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the trading behavior and the impact of new investors on the bubble surrounding the Baosteel call warrant, the first derivative traded in China after a nine-year suspension. First, we find that the new investors initiated the bubble. Second, echoing common wisdom, we empirically show that the continuous entries of new investors sustained the bubble. T...

China’s decade-long housing boom looks nothing short of a gigantic bubble familiar to many countries: In big cities the price-to-income ratio reached 30 to 1 and the vacancy rate stood at 30% or above. This paper provides a theoretical framework to shed light on the causes and consequences of the great housing boom in China. We argue that the boom could be a rational bubble rooted in China’s un...

In this article we are interested in option pricing in markets with bubbles. A bubble is defined to be a price process which, when discounted, is a local martingale under the risk-neutral measure but not a martingale. We do not require the underlying process to be continuous, so that Levy-based asset prices are also possible. We give examples of bubbles both where volatility increases with the ...

Trading at prices above the fundamental value of an asset, i.e. a bubble, has been verified and replicated in laboratory asset markets for the past seven years. To date, only common group experience provides minimal conditions for common investor sentiment and trading at fundamental value. Rational expectations models do not predict the bubble and crash phenomena found in these experimental mar...

Asset price bubbles are considered to be a major risk to fi nancial stability. In this article, we show that an asset price bubble poses a bigger risk when banks are exposed to it. This is because when the bubble bursts, banks realise losses and this may trigger bank failures and a credit crunch. In contrast, when overvalued assets are held by ordinary savers, the consequences for fi nancial st...