in this paper, the effect of financial liberalization on household’s budget liquidity constraint is analyzed with the use of an error correction model. financial liberalization will decline liquidity constraint, with expanding means of making future incomes available for present consumption. here a financial liberalization index for iran is defined using principal component analysis technique, ...

Included here are two appendices. Appendix A has information on model priors, selected material on the data, and some details on computation. Appendix B contains an extended treatment of alternative measures of stress, and alternative measures of real activity, including how these measures compare to the base case model in terms of picking up the same state probabilities and, in some cases, qua...

This paper develops a closed-form option pricing formula for a spot asset whose variance follows a GARCH process. The model allows for correlation between returns of the spot asset and variance and also admits multiple lags in the dynamics of the GARCH process. The single-factor (one-lag) version of this model contains Heston’s (1993) stochastic volatility model as a diffusion limit and therefo...

One of the most important methods employed to measure the market risk is value at risk calculation method. In this study, the value at risk of banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and Over-the-counter (OTC) are calculated using parametric model, Monte Carlo simulation, historical simulation and Two-Sided Power (TSP) Distribution. The sample includes all listed banks in Iran. The results sh...

The aim of this paper is to forecast (out-of-sample) the distribution of financial returns based on realized volatility measures constructed from high-frequency returns. We adopt a semi-parametric model for the distribution by assuming that the return quantiles depend on the realized measures and evaluate the distribution, quantile and interval forecasts of the quantile model in comparison to a...

This paper introduces quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for multivariate diffusions based on discrete observations. A numerical solution to the stochastic differential equation is obtained by higher order Wagner-Platen approximation and it is used to derive the first two conditional moments. Monte Carlo simulation shows that the proposed method has good finite sample property for both normal a...

While ARCH/GARCH equations have been widely used to model financial market data, formal explanations for the sources of conditional volatility are scarce. This paper presents a model with the property that standard econometric tests detect ARCH/GARCH effects similar to those found in asset returns. We use evolutionary game theory to describe how agents endogenously switch among different foreca...

S tock returns of companies listed on the stock exchange is one of the most important criteria in assessing the macroeconomic. This study investigates the effect of exchange rate Volatility on the stock exchange Returns of D8 countries. It takes monthly data during the period (2008:1-2015:6) constituting 90 observations. At first we used Panel-GARCH model to estimate Exchange Rate Vo...

This paper examines volatility spillovers between the stock and currency markets of ten Asian economies in the period 2003 to 2014. To carry out this analysis, a multivariate asymmetric GARCH model is used. In general, our results present evidence of bidirectional volatility spillovers between both markets, independently of the individual country’s level of development. Additionally, our findin...

We consider a stochastic overlapping generations model for a continuum of individuals with finite lives in presence of a financial market. In this paper, agent’s heterogeneity is given by the dates of birth of the households, on the contrary to standard models, in which each agent has his own aversion coefficient on his utility function. By means of the martingale arguments, we compute the agen...