In this paper we present an application of Bayesian forecasting methods to outstanding insurance claims. We assume that the time it takes for the claims to be completely paid is fixed and known, that payments are made annually and that the development of partial payments follow a stable pay-off pattern, from one year of origin to another. We present a Bayesian approach to forecasting either the...

nowadays, the customer's credit assessment is one of most important challenges for managers in decision making. especially in the current situation which the number scam has increased and outstanding claims of business company is increasing. on the other hand decision making about customers and their credit is based on expert judgment and also the customer information is often uncertain, a...

Occurrences and developments of claims are modelled as a marked point process. The individual claim consists of an occurrence time, two covariates, a reporting delay, and a process describing partial payments and settlement of the claim. Under certain likelihood assumptions the distribution of the process is described by 14 onedimensional components. The modelling is nonparametric Bayesian. The...

In recent years, statisticians and psychologists have provided the critique that p-values do not capture the evidence afforded by data and are, consequently, ill suited for analysis in scientific endeavors. The issue is particular salient in the assessment of the recent evidence provided for ESP by Bem (2011) in the mainstream Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Wagenmakers, Wetzels, ...