This paper investigates the value of international cooperation during an oil supply disruption. The International Energy Agency provides the aegis for energy cooperation among the industrialized countries, but only an enormous disruption would ‘trigger’ the Agency’s emergency mechanism. Smaller ( ‘sub-trigger’) disruptions have occurred three times in the past decade, and twice, in I9 73-74, an...

We develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have. We first dichotomize an agent’s information at current date t into knowledge up to date t 1 f and expectations after t 1 f. We then form a residual-based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models based on different values of f. We illustrate the method, examining investment around tax reforms to...

The present paper aimed at studying the current models of credit portfolio management. There are currently three types of models which consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (Moody's KMV model, and Credit- Metrics model), the intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the Macro-factors model). The development of these three types of models is based...

the present paper aimed at studying the current models of credit portfolio management. there are currently three types of models which consider the risk of credit portfolio: the structural models (moody's kmv model, and credit- metrics model), the intensity models (the actuarial models) and the econometric models (the macro-factors model). the development of these three types of models is based...

China has experienced rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, and the land conversion has accelerated in central provinces since the mid-1990s. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors on the urban conversion of agricultural land in Henan Province, China. Using panel econometric models, we examine how socioeconomic and policy fac...

The study of the Keynesian-monetarist synthesis macroeconomic model on Indonesia’s balance payments combines goods market and money approaches to theory. This used three models shortness payments: Keynesian, monetarism, Keynesian monetarism methods. Data was from 1998 2019 International Monetary Fund, international financial statistics, sheet book Bank Indonesia statistics report. data is analy...