This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities is an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of three months. The main innovation of our work, however, is the method used for estimation, allowing us ...

K e y w o r d s: prediction, model comparison, density forecasting, inflation, VAR models, shrinkage. J E L Classification: E31, E37, C53, C32.

one of the most important objectives of any economic system is to achieve to low and stable inflation and sustained economic growth. in this study, first, bayesian causal is indentified effective factors on inflation and then using bayesian causal network and determining prior probabilities and posterior probabilities in different scenarios,it is discussed the impacts of this factors on inflati...

This paper estimates a structural New Keynesian model to test whether globalization has changed the behavior of U.S. macroeconomic variables. Several key coefficients in the model – such as the slopes of the Phillips and IS curves, the sensitivities of domestic inflation and output to “global” output, and so forth – are allowed in the estimation to depend on the extent of globalization (modeled...

This paper compares three reduced-form models of heterogeneity in survey inflation expectations. On the one hand, we specify two models of forecasting inflation based on limited information flows of the type developed in Mankiw and Reis [2002. Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117(4), 1295–1328]. We pr...

This paper examines the relation between granting central banks more independence represented in both its manifested legal charter as well actual practices adopted and inflation Egypt during period from 1998-2019. To do so, this first looks at evolution of different bank (CBI) measures adopts most comprehensive relevant one. Consequently, it runs a regression model adopting an autoregressive di...

In the wake of steep fall in national savings due to economic shocks, among them COVID-19 pandemic macroeconomic consequences, this study examines what extent inflation explains variation saving behavior developing countries. Most past empirical studies investigated role on only advanced nations. The current will investigate effect culture Kenya. To determine how saving, use s ordinary least sq...

Central banks like the Bank of England or the Bundesbank have highlighted recently that the supply of currency is achieved not by means of printing and spending but by means of credit. This clarification raises further issues. This article addresses the issue of seigniorage and optimal inflation. So far approaches to seigniorage and optimal inflation are still based on the assumption of a curre...

This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several years. I confirm previous findings that the slope of the Phillips curve has varied over time and probably ...