Fisher is the single most important figure in 20th century statistics. This talk examines his influence on modern statistical thinking, trying to predict how Fisherian we can expect the 21st century to be. Fisher’s philosophy is characterized as a series of shrewd compromises between the Bayesian and frequentist viewpoints, augmented by some unique characteristics that are particularly useful i...

The conjunctive causal power PC theory (Novick & Cheng, 2004) proposes that when people have to make a judgement about whether or not two causal candidates acting together produce an effect, they take into account several hypotheses. These hypotheses state that the effect will occur due to the: a) influence of a candidate A; b) influence of a candidate B; c) conjunctive influence of both A and ...

This study investigates the role of demographics, specifically gender, on susceptibility to three social influence types for certain products. Data were collected in two stages from business students at a large university. Analyses were performed at the construct and product levels. At the construct level, marital status and living situation were found to be the significant demographics for bot...

We propose the Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD): A complete and canonical representation of probability distributions defined over the models of a given propositional theory. Each parameter of a PSDD can be viewed as the (conditional) probability of making a decision in a corresponding Sentential Decision Diagram (SDD). The SDD itself is a recently proposed complete and canonica...

Interaction between decision makers may affect their preferences. We consider a setup in which each individual is characterized by two sets of preferences: his unchanged core preferences and his behavioral preferences. Each individual has a social influence function that determines his behavioral preferences given his core preferences and the behavioral preferences of other individuals in his g...

Influence Diagrams ( I D S ) are a graphic formal ism able to provide a compact representation of decision problems. IDs are based on the axioms of probabi l i ty and decision theory, and they define a normat ive framework to model decision mak ing . Unfor tunate ly , IDs require a large amount of in fo rmat ion that is not always available to the decision maker. Th is paper in troduces a new c...

We consider the problem of learning about and comparing the consequences of dynamic treatment strategies on the basis of observational data. We formulate this within a probabilistic decision-theoretic framework. Our approach is compared with related work by Robins and others: in particular, we show how Robins’s ‘G-computation’ algorithm arises naturally from this decision-theoretic perspective....

This research examines the effects of GSS and task type on informational and normative influence in small groups by analyzing group process. It extends Kaplan and Miller' s research on task type and informational and normative influence in small groups in an unsupported setting to a GSS setting. The two tasks used are an intellective task and a preference task, and the two support levels are un...