this study attempts to explore the development and evolution of mackinder's geopolitical thinking in global politics of british empire and its influence thereafter. this research paper examines the characteristics of geopolitical perspective of britain, through halford mackinder's heartland theory during the three periods of the early twentieth century to the present time. in this reg...

Proper scoring rules can be used to incentivize a forecaster to truthfully report her private beliefs about the probabilities of future events and to evaluate the relative accuracy of forecasters. While standard scoring rules can score forecasts only once the associated events have been resolved, many applications would benefit from instant access to proper scores. In forecast aggregation, for ...

The south Caucasus and Central Asia will be of growing geopolitical significance to the West and NATO over the next 10–15 years because of their potential contribution to global energy supplies and energy security and the risk that conflict and instability could spread beyond the region, invite foreign military intervention, provoke a resurgence of Russian neo-imperialism, redefine the territor...

This paper discusses the relationship between ontology, seen as the doctrine concerned with the nature of reality, and the management of technology. It introduces two ontological positions: realism and constructivism. Realism is the position that holds that reality is objectively given and independent of the observer. Constructivism stands for the belief that reality is constructed by the obser...

T research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecast...