We develop and empirically test a continuous time equilibrium model for the pricing of oil futures. The model provides a link between no-arbitrage models and expectation oriented models. It highlights the role of inventories for the identification of different pricing regimes. In an empirical study the hedging performance of our model is compared with five other oneand two-factor pricing models...

Article history: Received 7 May 2011 Received in revised form 3 November 2012 Accepted 16 January 2013 Available online 26 January 2013 We analyze how gender and age, internal characteristics of retail futures traders—one that remains fixed while the other changes over a lifetime—and the security being traded and bull– bear market conditions, two external factors, are related to the disposition...

This paper shows pricing and hedging efficiency of a three factor stochastic mean reversion Gaussian model of commodity prices using oil and copper futures and forward contracts. The model is estimated using NYMEX WTI (light sweet crude oil) and LME Copper futures prices and is shown to fit the data well. Furthermore, it shows how to hedge based on a three-factor model and confirms that using t...

We provide an analytical discussion of the optimal hedge ratio under discrepancies between the futures market price and its theoretical valuation according to the cost-of-carry model. Assuming a geometric Brownian motion for spot prices, we model mispricing as a speci...c noise component in the dynamics of futures market prices. Empirical evidence on the model is provided for the Spanish stock ...

This paper analyses the validity of the weak-form market efficiency, using the random-walk hypothesis for the six industrial base metals copper, aluminium, zinc, nickel, tin and lead traded at the London Metal Exchange. I analyse the behaviour of daily and weekly prices of the daily rolling three-month futures contracts, as these contracts exhibit the highest level of trading activity. In contr...

The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in the expected utility framework. It is then illustrated using numerical simulations. The presence of op...

This paper develops a dynamic, equilibrium model of a futures market to study optimal hedging and the term structure of open interest and futures prices. Investors continuously face spot price risk over time and attempt to hedge this risk using futures. Convenience yield shocks generate basis risk to rolling over near-to-maturity futures. Hence, investors need to simultaneously trade far-from-m...

This paper studies equilibrium in the futures market for a commodity in a single good economy, which is populated by heterogeneous producers and speculators. The commodity is traded only in the spot market at harvest whereas futures contracts written on the commodity are traded continuously. The model illustrates the role of heterogeneity and non-tradeness in a futures market equilibrium. The r...

The demand for hedging against price uncertainty in the presence of crop yield and revenue insurance contracts is examined for French wheat farms. The rationale for the use of options in addition to futures is first highlighted through the characterization of the first-best hedging strategy in the expected utility framework. It is then illustrated using numerical simulations. The presence of op...

Preliminary draft Not for attribution Comments welcome Current drafts of this paper and the associated computer programs and data will be posted to my web site: All errors are my own responsibility. Abstract / Summary The market for US equity indexes has traditionally comprised floor-traded index futures contracts and the individual markets for the component stocks. This picture has been altere...