This paper considers a dynamic adjustment process in a society with a continuum of agents. Each agent takes an action upon entry and commits to it until he is replaced by his successor at a stochastic point in time. In this society, rationality is common knowledge, but beliefs may not be coordinated with each other. A rationalizable foresight path is a feasible path of action distribution along...

Counselling acts consist in indicating useful activities, remedying human deficiencies. are guided by practical cognition. Since counselling activities oriented towards the future, their crucial element is foresight. It cognitive reflection foreseeing implementation of acts. actualised rhetorical and communicational context which associated with persuasive delivery content. Belonging to canon, ...

Article history: Received 8 March 2013 Received in revised form 10 January 2014 Accepted 17 January 2014 Available online 7 February 2014 Companies increasingly face a dynamic environment, where unexpected change is the norm rather than the exception. Strategic foresight uses a variety of methods to assess possible future events. Combining different foresight methods and integrating expert opin...

In this paper we investigate the so called foresight bias that may appear in the Monte-Carlo pricing of Bermudan and compound options if the exercise criteria is calculated by the same Monte-Carlo simulation as the exercise values. The standard approach to remove the foresight bias is to use two independent Monte-Carlo simulations: One simulation is used to estimate the exercise criteria (as a ...

In this paper we investigate the so called foresight bias that may appear in the Monte-Carlo pricing of Bermudan and compound options if the exercise criteria is calculated by the same Monte-Carlo simulation as the exercise values. The standard approach to remove the foresight bias is to use two independent Monte-Carlo simulations: One simulation is used to estimate the exercise criteria (as a ...

Purpose – This article aims to be an expository introduction to Robert Rosen’s anticipatory systems, the theory of which provides the conceptual basis for foresight studies. Design/methodology/approach – The ubiquity of anticipatory systems in nature is explained. Findings – Causality is not violated by anticipatory systems, and teleology is an integral aspect of science. Practical implications...

The planning of publicly funded research and development programs can benefit from participatory foresight processes where research issues are evaluated with regard to multiple criteria. However, few approaches have been developed for the shaping of collaborative research networks through which the resulting priorities are implemented. We therefore develop a methodology for the joint shaping of...

The subject of the study is process reindustrialization in old industrial region, where main development resources are preserved, but activity level innovative processes insufficient. purpose possibility applying foresight methods implementation neoindustrialization projects region. methodology includes a monographic industrialization dynamics, comparative analysis procedures for changing struc...

Foresight is currently perceived as a critical activity in the development of innovation policies and corporate strategies. While there are many descriptions of the benefits of foresight, there is little research into how these benefits are created. In addition, although the view of innovations has shifted towards a systems understanding, the same has not happened with foresight, which is large...