In this paper, it is proposed that coastal flood ensemble forecasts be partitioned into sub-ensemble forecasts using cluster analysis in order to produce representative statistics and to measure forecast uncertainty arising from the presence of clusters. After clustering the ensemble members, the ability to predict the cluster into which the observation will fall can be measured using a cluster...

Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS). These systems include a forecasting subsystem which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the be...

Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not pro...

For operational flood forecasting and operational decision-makers, ready access to current and forecasted meteorological conditions is essential for initiating flood response measures and issuing flood warnings. Effective flood forecasting systems must provide reliable, accurate and timely forecasts for a range of catchments; from small rapidly responding urban areas, to large, more slowly resp...

Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today’s SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation ...

Flood is one of the most important natural disasters affect China greatly, especially for southeast cities. To help mitigate the loss brought by it, technologies such as simulation, visualization, decision support system, etc. could be utilized in the process of emergency management for city flood. Thus the Flood Simulation and Decision Support System (FSDSS) comes into being. It is an integrat...

A Flood Monitoring and Warning System (FMWS) operating in real time is the main non-structural measure for reducing risk in flood-prone areas. During the last years significant efforts were addressed to improve the reliability of the forecast quantities mainly by assessing the forecast uncertainty in order to avoid the “illusion of certainty” for decision-makers. In this context, the purpose of...

Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in HESS if available. Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood ...