This paper studies electoral coalition formation and quantifies its impact on election outcomes. I estimate a model of electoral competition in which: (i) parties can form coalitions to coordinate their candidate nominations, and (ii) parties invest in campaign activities in support of their candidates. The model is estimated using data from the 2012 Mexican Chamber of Deputies election, which ...

In this essay we address the puzzle that exists in American politics based on the tension of convergence to the electoral mean because of the MVT (mean voter theorem) and the studies showing divergence in candidate positioning.We provide amodel in which voters and states are not treated equally because of vast regional differences. In contrast with the MVT, candidates who campaign in each state...

This paper studies pre-electoral coalition formation and its effect on election outcomes. I estimate a structural model of electoral competition in which: (i) parties can form pre-electoral coalitions to coordinate their candidate nominations, and (ii) parties make strategic campaign spending decisions in support of their candidates. The estimation strategy exploits insights from the literature...

W e propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compos...

The principle of democracy is that the people govern through elected representatives. Therefore, a democracy is healthy as long as the elected politicians do represent the people. We have analyzed data from the Brazilian electoral court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) concerning money donations for the electoral campaigns and the election results. Our work points to two disturbing conclusion...

W e propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compos...

In this paper I develop a model of political platform choice and subsequent policy implementation decisions by political candidates who are primarily motivated by career concerns. Although political platforms are non binding, politicians have some incentive to keep campaign promises in order to uphold their reputation. I analyze the electoral outcome and the determinants which influence the dec...

We study a model of electoral competition where voters obtain information on candidates’ platforms through campaign advertising, and word-of-mouth communication. We show that when the costs of campaign advertising are low, an increase in word-of-mouth communication among voters causes polarization. In particular, the more voters can exchange political information between each other, the more of...

In 2009, a unique Portuguese electoral cycle comprised european, local, and national elections. During the three month non-stop campaign period, more than a hundred experienced bloggers, supporters of the three main political parties, created three non party-sponsored blogs. These blogs were the focal point of the political blogosphere during that period and ceased their activities at the end o...

I develop a model of campaign finance in primary elections in which campaigns, which supply hard information about candidates’ electability, must be financed by strategic donors. I provide a rationale for Super Tuesday electoral calendars in which a block of voters vote simultaneously early in the election followed by other voters voting sequentially. For a range of campaign costs, such a calen...