Cellular automata provide the key to a dynamic modelling and simulation framework that integrates socio-economic with environmental models, and that operates at both micro and macro geographical scales. An application to the problem of forecasting the effect of climate change on a small island state suggests that such modelling techniques could help planners and policy makers design more effect...

Gary Becker's (1968) model of rational criminal behavior forms the basis of how economists think about crime. In this paper we report results from economic experiments that provide a direct test of the primary hypothesis of this model: that criminal behavior responds rationally to changes in the possible rewards and in the probability and severity of punishment. We find that the data are genera...

The New Zealand health care sector stands out relative to other OECD countries, with relatively low per-capita health expenditure and a public dominant health system. Efficient allocation of resources is therefore paramount. This paper creates a predictive model for patient volume using the national database of hospital admissions. Contrasting predicted with actual demand, we construct indicato...

Rational choice of teenage sexual behaviour lead to radically different predictions than do models that assume such behaviour is random. Existing empirical evidence has not been able to distinguish conclusively between these competing models. Using regional data from England between 1998 and 2001, I find that recent increases in availability of youth family planning clinics are associated with ...