For the average citizen and the public, "earthquake prediction" means "short-term prediction," a prediction of a specific earthquake on a relatively short time scale. Such prediction must specify the time, place, and magnitude of the earthquake in question with sufficiently high reliability. For this type of prediction, one must rely on some short-term precursors. Examinations of strain changes...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) combines the probabilities of all earthquake scenarios with different magnitudes and distances with predictions of resulting ground motion intensity, in order to compute seismic hazard at a site. PSHA also incorporates uncertainties in ground motion predictions, by considering multiple Ground Motion Prediction ("attenuation") Models (GMPMs). Current ...

Earthquake forecasting is known to be a challenging research program for which no single prediction method can claim to be the best. At large, earthquake data when viewed as a time series over a long time, exhibits a complex pattern that is composed of a mix of statistical features. A single prediction algorithm often does not yield an optimal forecast by analyzing over a long series that is co...

Attenuation relation (Ground-motion prediction equation) The term “attenuation relation” is a former short-hand notation in earthquake engineering for “empirical ground-motion attenuation relationship”, now referred to as “ground-motion prediction equation” (GMPE). Attenuation relations represent empirical scaling equations that relate observed ground-motion intensity measures to parameters of ...

According to the features and demands of earthquake rescue on-site, automatic modelling and scene generation methods based on fundamental geographic data were investigated, and an earthquake scene model was proposed considering both effect of local site conditions on ground motion and vulnerability of different buildings. Based on ArcGIS Engine, the system in which the scene of pre-earthquake a...

We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...

Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismograp...

In order to minimize the loss of disasters on urban earthquake damage prediction research is of great significance. This paper, establishment of a data management system based on ArcGIS +Visual Studio. NET platform is an important work of the project, design and development of Langfang City earthquake damage prediction system. Firstly, the overall system framework, then introduce the system to ...