Is risk priced in the labor market? We document a strong, robust, and positive correlation between average earnings and the variance of both temporary and permanent idiosyncratic shocks to earnings across 21 US industries. However, since workers are heterogeneous in their abilities, the correlation may be entirely driven by selection. What portion of the correlation is compensation for risk and...

This study evaluates the impact of earnings on firm credit risk as captured by Credit Default Swaps (CDS). We find that earnings (changes) are negatively correlated with one-year swap premia (changes) after controlling for equity returns but not with longer term premia (changes). We also find that earnings surprises are significantly correlated with one-year CDS premia changes in the short wind...

Increasing income and wealth inequality has led to renewed interest in understanding and explaining wealth and income distributions, and in particular the recent growth in their top shares (Piketty, 2014). The literature has largely emphasized the role of earnings inequality in explaining wealth inequality. Indeed, Bewley-Aiyagari economies, which focus on precautionary savings as an optimal re...

We use a unique dataset of German banks’ exposure to interest rate risk to derive the following statements about their exposure to this risk and their earnings from term transformation. The systematic factor for the exposure to interest rate risk moves in sync with the shape of the term structure. At bank level, however, the time variation of the exposure is largely determined by idiosyncratic ...

This paper documents that the earnings yield and book-to-price combine to predict equity returns in a way that is consistent with the rational pricing of risk. It is well known that earnings yields predict returns in the cross-section, consistent with standard formulas that show that the earnings yield equals the required return when there is no expected earnings growth beyond that from retenti...

Whereas the relations derived for price-earnings (P/E) ratios predict a positive relation with future earnings growth and negative relations with interest rates and risk, prior empirical investigations of the determinants of P/E ratios find these links to be weak. One reason commonly offered for this apparent inconsistency is the presence of transitory earnings components in the denominator. We...

Firms scheduled to report earnings earn an annualized abnormal return of 9.9%. We propose a risk-based explanation for this phenomenon, in which investors use announcements to revise their expectations for non-announcing …rms, but can only do so imperfectly. Consequently, the covariance between …rm-speci…c and market cash-‡ow news spikes around announcements, making announcers especially risky....

The singular focus of public debate on the "top 1 percent" of households overlooks the component of earnings inequality that is arguably most consequential for the "other 99 percent" of citizens: the dramatic growth in the wage premium associated with higher education and cognitive ability. This Review documents the central role of both the supply and demand for skills in shaping inequality, di...

As women's labor-force participation and earnings have grown, so has the likelihood that wives outearn their husbands. A common concern is that these couples may be at heightened risk of divorce. Yet with the rise of egalitarian marriage, wives' relative earnings may be more weakly associated with divorce than in the past. We examine trends in the association between wives' relative earnings an...