In complex systems, a critical transition is a shift in a system's dynamical regime from its current state to a strongly contrasting state as external conditions move beyond a tipping point. These transitions are often preceded by characteristic early warning signals such as increased system variability. However, early warning signals in complex, coupled human-environment systems (HESs) remain ...

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced...

Robust programmatic monitoring of factors associated with the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) drug resistance is an essential component of antiretroviral therapy (ART) program evaluation and treatment optimization. China piloted World Health Organization HIV drug resistance early warning indicators to assess the feasibility and usefulness of results. Overall, early warning indic...

Critical transitions are sudden, often irreversible, changes that can occur in a large variety of complex systems; signals that warn of critical transitions are therefore highly desirable. We propose a new method for early warning signals that integrates multiple sources of information and data about the system through the framework of a generalized model. We demonstrate our proposed approach t...

A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors worldwide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected ne...

In the last few years, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) has been reported as an emerging tickborne disease in Turkey. This paper deals with the preparation of an early warning system, aimed to predict the beginning of the CCHF season in Turkey based on a clear, simple and repeatable remotely-sensed signal. Decadal (mean of 10 days) values of the normalized difference vegetation index (ND...