Commonly used instruments for the identification of monetary policy disturbances are likely to combine true shock with information about state economy due disclosed through action. We show that this signaling effect can give rise empirical puzzles reported in literature, and propose a new high-frequency instrument shocks accounts informational rigidities. find tightening is unequivocally contra...

Abstract This research evaluated the effects of supplementing extruded dried distillers’ grains (DDG) cubes to grazing steers on subsequent finishing performance and carcass characteristics. Steers (n = 140) grazed tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea)/bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon) pastures from 14 April 17 September 2020 with supplementation treatments 3 pastures/treatment) that included: 1) Fer...

We study forward-looking economic models assuming that agents take one step ahead expectations looking back k time periods. We show that the dynamics of the economy with such an expectation function are characterized by the coexistence of perfect foresight and nonperfect foresight cycles. The stability of all these periodic solutions under bounded rationality is related to the stability of the ...

We examine robustness of stability under learning to observability of exogenous shocks. Regardless of observability assumptions, the minimal state variable solution is robustly stable under learning provided the expectational feedback is not both positive and large, while the nonfundamental solution is never robustly stable. Overlapping generations and New Keynesian models are considered and co...

This paper considers the Ricardian Equivalence proposition when expectations are not rational and are instead formed using adaptive learning rules. We show that Ricardian Equivalence continues to hold provided suitable additional conditions on learning dynamics are satisfied. However, new cases of failure can also emerge under learning. In particular, for Ricardian Equivalence to obtain, agents...

Separating Uncertainty from Heterogeneity in Life Cycle Earnings This paper develops and applies a method for decomposing cross section variability of earnings into components that are forecastable at the time students decide to go to college (heterogeneity) and components that are unforecastable. About 60% of variability in returns to schooling is forecastable. This has important implications ...

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results ...

This paper studies disclosure dynamics and its implications for stock returns. Because disclosure is costly, the firm may withhold information for some time even when information is favorable. In equilibrium, the firm adopts a regular time-pattern of disclosure. Breaking this regularity, by failing to issue a disclosure when expected, leads to a sharp drop in the stock price and to a period of ...

By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, Woodford (1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford (1990). We find that if finite state Markov sunspots are stable under learning then all sunspots are stable u...