We consider the approximation of the convolution product of not necessarily identical probability distributions qj I + pjF , (j = 1, . . . , n), where, for all j , pj = 1 − qj ∈ [0, 1], I is the Dirac measure at point zero, and F is a probability distribution on the real line. As an approximation, we use a compound binomial distribution, which is defined in a one-parametric way: the number of t...

Promotion time models have been recently adapted to the context of infectious diseases to take into account discrete and multiple exposures. However, Poisson distribution of the number of pathogens transmitted at each exposure was a very strong assumption and did not allow for inter-individual heterogeneity. Bernoulli, the negative binomial, and the compound Poisson distributions were proposed ...

Despite its success, the Black-Scholes formula has become increasingly unreliable over time in the very markets where one would expect it to be most accurate. In addition, attempts by financial economists to extract probabilistic information from option prices have been puny in comparison to what is clearly possible. This paper develops a new method for inferring risk-neutral probabilities (or ...

We study a discrete-time interaction risk model with delayed claims within the framework of the compound binomial model. Using the technique of generating functions, we derive both a recursive formula and a defective renewal equation for the expected discounted penalty function. As applications, the probabilities of ruin and the joint distributions of the surplus one period to ruin and the defi...

Here we model the price of a stock in discrete time by a Markov chain of the recursive form Sn+1 = SnYn+1, n ≥ 0, where the {Yi} are iid with distribution P (Y = u) = p, P (Y = d) = 1 − p. Here 0 < d < 1 + r < u are constants with r the risk-free interest rate ((1 + r)x is the payoff you would receive one unit of time later if you bought $x worth of the risk-free asset (a bond for example, or p...

Investment decisions in adaptation are usually made under significant uncertainty due to climate change and socio-economic trends. Extreme events cause damage and may become more frequent over time. In this study we propose three ways to incorporate climate and socioeconomic uncertainty into the assessment of adaptation infrastructures in the city of Bilbao. The first suggestions is to use stoc...

Based on characteristics of the nonlife joint-stock insurance company, this paper presents a compound binomial risk model that randomizes the premium incomeonunit time and sets the thresholdx for paying dividends to shareholders. In thismodel, the insurance company obtains the insurance policy in unit time with probability p 0 and pays dividends to shareholders with probability p 1 when the sur...

In this paper, we extend the compound binomial model to the case where the premium income process, based on a binomial process, is no longer a linear function. First, a mathematically recursive formula is derived for non ruin probability, and then, we examine the expected discounted penalty function, satisfy a defect renewal equation. Third, the asymptotic estimate for the expected discounted p...

By considering the effect on company business from the random premium and inflations, and taking the surplus capital as investment to enhance the company payment’s capacity for the policy-holder, we proposed a compound negative binomial risk model for the inhomogeneous double type-insurance. For the proposed model, some basic properties of the surplus process were analyzed to obtain its station...