In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises — that is, financial markets dislike economic uncertainty. Moreover, future earnings growth rates are sharply predicted by current price-earnings ratios. It...

For many kinds of assets, the growth rate of the real asset stock is a nonlinear function of the economic owner’s decision whether to invest or extract the asset. Examples within the economy are primarily biological assets, both privately owned (such as those found in aquaculature and agriculture) and publicly owned or regulated (such as fish stocks, and in some case, timber stocks.) Optimal ex...

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of Nigerian insurance companies using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Because of the unavailability of the required data, the study is limited to ten Nigerian insurance companies for the period of five years from 2008 to 2012. The input employed were commission expenses and management expenses, while premium and investment income...

The recently developed long-run risks asset pricing model shows that concerns about long-run expected growth and time-varying uncertainty (i.e., volatility) about future economic prospects drive asset prices. These two channels of economic risks can account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross-sectional differences in ass...

The study of asset price characteristics of stochastic growth models such as the riskfree interest rate, equity premium and the Sharpe ratio has been limited by the lack of global and accurate methods to solve dynamic optimization models. In this paper a stochastic version of a dynamic programming method with adaptive grid scheme is applied to compute the above mentioned asset price characteris...

We introduce both idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks in an endogenous growth model with endogenous partial insurance to the idiosyncratic shock. Aggregate uncertainty introduces an additional channel that can play an important role in determining the effects of private information on expected growth and asset prices. We show the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks on expected growth an...

We build a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium of a common property productive asset oligopoly and analyze separately the impact of a change in the implicit growth rate of the asset and a change in the number of firms exploiting the asset. We show that the steady state level of asset can be a decreasing function of the asset’s implicit growth rate. This phenomenon arises when the initial stock of ...

This paper studies the implications of financial market imperfections represented by a countercyclical external finance premium and the gradual recognition of changes in the drift of technology growth for the design of an interest rate rule. Asset price movements induced by changes in trend growth influence balancesheet conditions that determine the external finance premium. Such movements are ...

We show that absence of arbitrage in frictionless markets implies a lower bound on the average of the logarithm of the reciprocal of the stochastic discount factor implicit in asset pricing models. The greatest lower bound for a given asset menu is the average continuously compounded return on its growth-optimal portfolio. We use this bound to evaluate the plausibility of various parametric ass...