This paper provides a simple dynamic optimization model of durable goods inventories. Closed-form solutions are derived in a general equilibrium environment with imperfect information and serially correlated shocks. The model is then applied to scrutinize some popular conjectures regarding the causes of the volatility reduction of GDP since 1984. JEL Classification: E22, E23, E32.

We construct a time-series model of investment in Israel that incorporates both traditional economic factors derived from a theoretical model of a profit-maximising representative firm and indicators of political instability and unrest. This is used to estimate the extent to which the Intifada has depressed Israeli investment and the size of the corresponding "peace dividend". JEL Classificatio...

In this paper we propose a subsampling estimator for the distribution of statistics diverging at either known or unknown rates when the underlying time series is strictly stationary and strong mixing. Based on our results we provide a detailed discussion how to estimate extreme order statistics with dependent data and present two applications to assessing nancial market risk. Our method perform...

General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits harvested, overestimation. call phenomenon Productivity J-curve. apply our me...

The empirical relationship between trade protection and economic growth is surprisingly fragile, as shown in a number of other papers. After demonstrating this empirical sensitivity, we address one possible explanation for these findings: that the relationship is nonlinear. Following the endogenous growth literature, we test for the possibility that the relationship between trade barriers and g...