We review the literature on return and cash flow growth predictability form the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries. JEL classification: G10, G12, G14, G35.

It is shown that the absence of call spread, butterfly spread and calendar spread arbitrages is sufficient to exclude all static arbitrages from a set of option price quotes across strikes and maturities on a single underlier.  2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G10; G12; G13; G14

Abstract We exploit detailed transaction and position data for a sample of long-short equity hedge funds to study the trading activity fundamental investors. find that exhibit skill in opening positions, but they close their positions too early, thereby forgoing about one-third trades’ potential profitability. explain this behavior with limits arbitrage: early order reallocate capital more prof...

Abstract I find that approximately 30% of price fluctuations in the Fama-French size and value factors are nonfundamental pressures driven by correlated fund flows, which generate movements revert over time. Is this really demand-based pressure? show effects happen exclusively periods when mutual funds place trades, a fact is difficult to explain using traditional mechanisms such as unobserved ...

Incentive problems make securities’ payoffs imperfectly pledgeable, limiting agents’ ability to issue liabilities. We analyze the equilibrium consequences of such endogenous incompleteness in a dynamic exchange economy. Because markets are endogenously incomplete, agents have different intertemporal marginal rates substitution, so that they value assets differently. Consequently, hold portfolio...

We study how a firm’s decision to offer bonds of various maturities affects the portfolio allocations of institutional investors. We argue that because of lower information-collection costs, institutional investors tilt their portfolios towards firms that offer bonds of various maturities. We show that this translates into lower bond yields, both in the primary and in the secondary bond markets...

Abstract We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with COVID-19. find that sectors in which a higher fraction of workforce is not able to work remotely experienced greater declines employment and expected revenue growth, worse stock market performance, likelihood default. The overweights low-exposure industries. Thus, our findings cast light on disconnect between indices aggregate outc...

The Great Recession seems to be creating a New Interventionist Economics characterized by bubbles, radical uncertainty, animal spirits, complexity dynamics, and extra-market control. When placed in that order, these characteristic create the acronym BRACE. I review some evidence and literature pointing to BRACE economics and briefly suggest some avenues to challenge the new interventionists. JE...

Approximate Incremental Value-at-Risk formulae provide an easy-to-use preliminary guideline for risk allocation. Both the cases of risk adding and risk pooling are examined and beta-based formulae achieved. Results highlight how much the conditions for adding new risky positions are stronger than those required for risk pooling. JEL classification: C13; D81; G11; G12.

This paper develops a tractable dynamic term structure models under jump-diffusion and regime shifts with time varying transition probabilities. The model allows for regime-dependent jumps while both jump risk and regime-switching risk are priced. Closed form solution for the term structure is obtained for an affine-type model under loglinear approximation. JEL Classification: G12, E43, E52