The objective of the research is to estimate transmission rate an infection (β) in SI epidemical model, using Bayesian statistical methods from observed data Peru. After studying mathematical model and inference metho'ds, a estimator proposed transmisión this procedure Montecarlo simulation based on Markov chains - MCMC.

The uniform sampling of convex regions in high dimension is an important computational issue, from both theoretical and applied point of view. The hit-and-run montecarlo algorithms are the most efficient methods known to perform it and one of their bottlenecks relies in the difficulty of escaping from tight corners in high dimension. Inspired by optimized montecarlo methods used in statistical ...

The PERT technique of three estimates is a traditional, well-known approach to expert estimation. Estimators are asked for their optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimation; then, a beta probability distribution is built to fit the data. Having a probability distribution for each activity allows a Montecarlo simulation to estimate the overall project effort with better accuracy. Still, e...

New equations for paralyzable, non paralyzable and hybrid DT models, valid for any time dependent sources are presented. We show how such new equations include the equations already used for constant rate sources, and how it's is possible to correct DT losses in the case of time dependent sources. Montecarlo simulations were performed to compare the equations behavior with the three DT models. ...

Search methods based on Monte-Carlo simulation have recently led to breakthrough performance improvements in difficult game-playing domains such as Go and General Game Playing. Monte-Carlo Random Walk (MRW) planning applies MonteCarlo ideas to deterministic classical planning. In the forward chaining planner ARVAND, MonteCarlo random walks are used to explore the local neighborhood of a search ...

Abstract Computer holography is a growing research field that must pay attention to two main issues concerning computing effort: the visualization of 3D virtual scene with photo-realistic quality and bottleneck related hologram digitizalition limits. This work shows computational approach based on Monte Carlo path-tracing algorithm, which accounts for both geometrical physical phenomena involve...

The DENIS and 2MASS near infrared surveys are presented. Their applications in extragalactic astronomy and cosmology are listed. The prospects for a rapid spectroscopic followup survey of a near infrared selected sample of nearly 10 galaxies are illustrated with MonteCarlo simulations.

This note reports about the way it is possible to reweight four-fermion (4-f) events in order to account for the O(α) radiative corrections implemented in double pole approximation (DPA). The recommended choice for the DELPHI users is described and commented. This work is based on the new codes implementing DPA developed in the frame of the 2000 LEP2 Montecarlo workshop.